Brazil’s Path to Wealth Through Renewable Energy for AI

Column by Ronaldo Lemos published in Folha de São Paulo.

published in

3 de December de 2024

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    Data centers alone will consume 4.5% of the planet’s energy by
    2030.

    Brazil has a clear path to tapping into the wealth generated by artificial
    intelligence: power and electricity. More specifically, renewable energy.
    In recent months, the world has watched in awe as NVIDIA, the company
    producing chips for AI, has seen its market value skyrocket by $2.7 trillion
    over 18 months – surpassing Brazil’s GDP in 2023.
    Artificial intelligence rests on two pillars: chips and electricity. AI without
    chips is impossible; chips without electricity are lifeless silicon. In 2023,
    Nvidia shipped 100,000 chips, consuming 7.3 TWh of energy. This
    demand is expected to grow exponentially by 2026, potentially multiplying
    by ten.
    This trend is already becoming a reality. Google’s latest annual climate
    impact report reveals a 48% increase in greenhouse gas emissions over
    the last five years, with a 13% spike in 2023 alone, reaching 14.3 million
    tons annually. This surge is driven by energy consumption in AI data
    centers.
    However, these figures are unsustainable. Ramping pollution to fuel AI
    services defies logic, especially considering that data centers alone will
    account for 4.5% of global energy consumption by 2030.
    In this context, the demand for renewable energy will soar, just like the
    demand for Nvidia’s chips. Brazil is exceptionally well-positioned to meet
    this need. In 2023, 93.1% of the energy produced in Brazil came from
    renewable sources (according to CCEE, the Electric Energy Trading
    Chamber). Brazil boasts 203 GW of installed capacity and 85 GW in future
    projects, all of which are renewable (per data from Aneel, the Brazilian
    Electricity Regulatory Agency).

    Brazil can attract data centers by offering local renewable energy
    (through “powershoring”). Alternatively, this energy can be exported to
    power industries on other continents. Accelerating the National Hydrogen
    Program (PNH2), which converts renewable energy into exportable
    hydrogen, is crucial.
    Last Wednesday, the Senate passed Bill 2.038, establishing the legal
    framework for hydrogen in Brazil. This is a landmark piece of legislation,
    not just for Brazil but possibly for the world, as it tackles a critical
    structural issue for AI.
    This is the first step toward directly benefiting from AI’s growth by
    providing clean energy. Brazil can become the “Nvidia of renewable
    electricity.” But this requires swift and strategic action.
    Certification is key: we must ensure that the energy supplied is genuinely
    clean and renewable. CCEE is working on this task, developing a platform
    to trade renewable energy certificates (I-RECs), green hydrogen, and other
    products. Its database will also prevent duplicate certification, avoiding
    the pitfalls of greenwashing.
    This is an unparalleled opportunity for Brazil. Google has pledged to
    achieve zero carbon emissions by 2030 but is struggling to meet this
    goal. Brazil must step up and solidify its position as the world’s largest
    supplier of certified clean energy. This is one of the defining missions of
    our generation.

    What’s out: The outdated belief that AI won’t benefit Brazil economically.
    What’s in: Recognizing that Brazil could become the world’s top supplier
    of renewable energy.
    What’s next: Seizing this opportunity rapidly, not just for AI, but for other
    industries like aviation, steel, and fertilizers.

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